Deoleo aims at high oil production

The markt company olive oil estimated at more than 1,400,000 tonnes of olive oil production for the 2015-2016 campaign. The total availability of olive oil, added stocks from the previous year and imports will be around 1,700,000 tons.

Deoleo expected production 2015-2016 marketing year exceeds 1,400,000 tons, 67% above the production of the previous season, which was 842,200 tons.

With real data and, until February, production reached 1,357,000 tons. The average of the last 10 seasons from March to May is around 120,000 tonnes, bringing the total production at the end of the campaign will in all probability than 1,400,000 tons.

This expected production of over 1,400,000 tons is 16% higher than the estimates that have been published throughout the campaign different operators in the sector, which provided a shorter production, around 1,200,000 tons, it has resulted in high volatility in prices.

Thus, the total expected availabilities, combined imports and stocks of the previous season, would stand at around 1,700,000 tons, enough to meet the needs of the domestic market and to facilitate increased exports. The estimate for the next campaign link would be approximately 410,000 tons.

Thus, the 2015-2016 campaign, with a planned production of more than 1,400,000 tons, would be the third campaign with the best results of the last ten, ranking only behind the campaigns 2013/14 and 2011/12. These production figures would therefore 18% above the average of the last ten production campaigns.

This result contrasts with that of the 2014-2015 campaign, characterized by low production due mainly to adverse weather conditions. This led to a substantial increase in the price of olive oil in Spain, with constant and intense until August where the maximum marked with extra virgin 4,24 € / kg increases. Although prices moderated in September, from December rose again gradually and maintaining very high to date. At this juncture consumption fell in Spain, according to Nielsen, 7.7%, representing a total of 22 million liters, of which 10 million liters of refined olive oil consumption were replaced by oil seeds and another 12 million liters were net loss of consumption, due to higher sales prices and other factors.

The analysis of data provided by Nielsen for the period 2002-2015 shows that approximately 12% of total oil sales in Spain ranges from olive and seeds depending on the price differential between the two oils there. In this period he represented olive oil, depending on the year, between 65% and 68% of total consumption, while the seeds accounted for the remaining 35% and 32%, respectively. The exception was two years with the maximum prices of olive oil: in 2006 only marked a 62% and in 2015, 61% of the total consumption transferred to the seeds in both years.

At the start of 2016, and given the high selling prices, a significantly higher number of Spanish households, compared with the beginning of 2015, which have transferred their consumption of olive oil, oil seeds, so we expect the consumption in Spain is considerably lower than in 2015. like Spain, many international markets, including key markets like the US, saw consumption of olive oil also decreased in favor of seeds due to high prices raw material.

Deoleo report

Deoleo has reached the estimate of more than 1,400,000 tons of production for the current year using information sources which, year after year, is based for the preparation of its annual report (Deoleo Report). The working methodology takes into account research and analysis reports and publications of international institutions, as well as the assessment of the availability and production of the main Spanish oilers areas and other producing countries.

The Deoleo Report is published since 2004; that of 2015-2016 will therefore be the 12th edition of this document which analyzes the progress and results of the last oil campaign and publishes estimates of production, consumption, imports, exports and stocks of the campaign underway in the main producing countries and production and export new producer countries.

The Deoleo Report includes current issues and relevance to the sector and is characterized by the rigor of the information and analysis that raises, hence has become a reference for operators in the sector.

As an example of rigor of Deoleo report in the last year, published in May 2015, the estimates were offered on production (834,000 tons), consumption (515,000), imports (150,000), exports (705,000) and link campaign (264,400) coincided almost entirely with the actual data and the end of the campaign.

Source: Deoleo