In November 2025, Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) published historic forecasts for the 2025/2026 almond season, estimating production at 467,521 tonnes—24% more than the previous campaign. These figures were based on the entry into production of new plantations and the recovery of water reserves after several years of drought.
However, the actual evolution of the crop is showing a more nuanced picture. The rainy winter, the prolonged flowering period, frost episodes and uneven performance across regions indicate that final production will be similar to last season or slightly higher, but far from the exceptional scenario initially projected.
Flowering: the determining factor
With the season already underway, almond trees are mostly in phenological stages I (young fruit) and J (fruit growth), although development varies significantly between regions, farms and even within the same tree.
Flowering, affected by intermittent rainfall and occasional drops in temperature, lasted longer than usual, creating a staggered pattern now reflected in fruit development.
“This year flowering lasted longer, and that has caused a lot of variability. The earliest flowers set better, while the later ones—especially in areas like Extremadura or Andalusia—are aborting,” explains Manuel Iglesias Contreras, technical advisor at BALAM and almond specialist.
This heterogeneity, visible in the coexistence of fruits of different sizes on the same tree, will be key to understanding why the campaign will not reach its maximum potential.
Rainfall: necessary, but with effects on fruit set and plant health
Rain has been a decisive factor this season. On one hand, it helped replenish water reserves and sustain a productive potential that would have been impossible under drought conditions. On the other, it introduced factors that limited fruit set.
During cloudy or rainy days, bee activity dropped significantly, affecting both cross‑pollinated varieties and self‑compatible ones. In addition, occasional washing of the pollen tube and a general increase in relative humidity favored the appearance of diseases such as monilia, fusicoccum, clasterosporium and phytophthora.
In heavy soils, such as those in the Guadalquivir Valley, water saturation even led to episodes of root asphyxia. In intensive and super‑intensive systems, higher density and reduced aeration increased disease pressure, requiring more technical and continuous management.
Overall, rainfall provided the water needed to sustain the crop but also reduced fruit set in late blooms and increased disease pressure. This explains why the campaign is expected to reach levels similar to last year or slightly above.
Frost: the main limiting factor in specific areas
Late frosts have been decisive in dryland areas and higher‑altitude zones, where the crop suffered severe damage. In the Granada high plateau, temperatures during flowering dropped to –5 °C, causing losses between 80% and 100% of production. In Almería, damage is around 70%, and specific points in Castilla‑La Mancha and the Ebro Valley have also been affected.
“These areas would have had enough water reserves for a great season, but frost has cut that potential short,” Iglesias notes.
The contrast with irrigated areas or intensive systems is striking: where frost did not occur, the crop maintains strong performance and high productive potential.
Varieties and planting systems: key to stability
The evolution of almond cultivation in Spain cannot be understood without two pillars that have transformed the sector: varietal choice and planting systems. Iglesias emphasizes that “self‑compatible varieties are the best option, and in cold areas, late or even extra‑late varieties are essential.”
Varietal resistance to disease is especially important in wet years, with materials such as Lauranne or Marta showing more stable behavior against diseases like anthracnose, while other varieties, such as Soleta, show greater sensitivity.
Meanwhile, intensive and super‑intensive systems have improved production regularity, mechanization and management control, although they also require stricter plant‑health monitoring in wet seasons.
Today, the combination of variety, system and management is one of the factors that best explains the crop’s ability to cushion the effects of irregular weather and sustain its expansion in Spain.
New production areas: expansion toward the interior
The expansion of almond cultivation into inland regions—Extremadura, Castilla‑La Mancha, Castilla y León and the Ebro Valley—is one of the sector’s most significant transformations. New varieties, water availability and precision agriculture have enabled the crop to advance into areas previously considered marginal.
“In Extremadura the crop is growing enormously; even areas traditionally dedicated to tobacco are shifting toward almonds,” Iglesias notes.
The current season is putting this expansion to the test: while some traditional areas have suffered severe frost, many of the new regions maintain high potential, which could help balance the final outcome.
A season that adjusts, but confirms the sector’s strength
The 2025/26 season will not reach the record initially forecast, but it may still match or slightly exceed last year’s results, thanks to the strong performance of frost‑free areas and the entry into production of new plantations.
“The design of the plantation, varietal choice and management are key for the crop to perform well, regardless of how the year turns out,” Iglesias concludes.
Beyond the final figures, almonds continue to consolidate their position as one of Spain’s strategic crops, with a model that is increasingly professional, technical and resilient.
