European cereal output is expected to lose ground in 2026 after the recovery recorded last year. Oilseeds and protein crops offer a more favourable outlook, although Copa-Cogeca warns that weather conditions could still alter the final harvest figures.
EU cereal production is forecast to reach approximately 264 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 6.6% decline compared with 2025, according to estimates released by Copa-Cogeca’s working parties on cereals, oilseeds and protein crops.
The projected fall comes after the improvement recorded in the previous harvest. Although the area devoted to most cereal crops is expected to decrease only slightly, lower yields across several Member States and a sharp contraction in maize acreage are weighing on the overall outlook.
Copa-Cogeca also points to the current difficulties surrounding fertiliser availability and costs. Its experts expect the impact on the 2026 harvest to remain relatively limited, however, with potentially greater consequences likely to emerge in the following season.
Maize records the sharpest decline
Total EU wheat production is expected to fall by 4.2%. Within this category, common wheat output is forecast to decrease by 4.3%, while durum wheat production could decline by 2.1%.
Barley production is projected to fall by 3.5%, but maize is facing the largest reduction among the main cereal crops. Output is forecast to drop by 13.9%, largely because the area sown to maize has contracted by 15.2%.
Average maize yields are expected to remain broadly stable across the EU, although the outlook is less favourable in France, Hungary and Spain.
The estimates also point to a 4% fall in rye production. Improved yields would not be sufficient to offset the reduction in planted area. Oat production could decrease by 9.3%, while triticale is also expected to register a more moderate decline.
Production conditions differ considerably across the EU. While some farming regions have benefited from favourable weather, others continue to contend with drought, high temperatures and water shortages. These factors are limiting yield potential, particularly in Spain and Hungary.
Despite the expected year-on-year decline, Copa-Cogeca anticipates that the 2026 cereal harvest will remain above the particularly low levels recorded in some recent seasons. The organisation nevertheless considers the forecast further evidence of European cereal production’s growing exposure to increasingly volatile weather conditions.
Oilseed output could rise to 33.3 million tonnes
Prospects are more encouraging for EU oilseeds. Production is forecast to reach 33.3 million tonnes, up 6.8% compared with 2025.
The increase is primarily supported by a 6.6% expansion in the total cultivated area, while average yields are expected to remain broadly unchanged. These estimates remain provisional, as the severe heatwave recorded in late June and the subsequent episodes of heavy rain and hail may have reduced yields in several countries, particularly Germany.
Rapeseed production is projected to increase by 6.4%, driven mainly by a larger planted area. Sunflower seed could record the strongest growth, with output rising by 11.2% as both acreage and yields improve.
Soybeans are the exception to this positive trend. EU production is forecast to decline by 4.3% because lower yields are expected to outweigh a slight increase in the cultivated area.
Protein crops maintain positive momentum
EU protein crop production is expected to reach four million tonnes in 2026, a 5% increase from the previous year. The projected growth is linked to a significant expansion in acreage, which would more than compensate for lower average yields.
Pea production is forecast to rise by 4.3%, while bean output could grow by 7.2%. Lupins, however, are expected to decline by 7% because of a marked deterioration in yields, despite an increase in the area under cultivation.
Copa-Cogeca stresses that none of these forecasts can yet be considered definitive. Further heatwaves, persistent drought or adverse conditions during grain filling and harvesting could still affect crops in Member States where fieldwork remains under way.
The final balance of the 2026 harvest will therefore depend heavily on weather developments and crop conditions during the closing stages of the season.
