The European Union is forecasting an apple harvest of 9.50 million tonnes for the 2026/2027 season, down 15.6% compared with 2025 and the second-lowest figure of the past ten years. In contrast, the pear crop is expected to reach 1.95 million tonnes, up 5.46% year-on-year and marking the highest production level since 2022, although it remains below pre-2020 levels. These figures were presented this week at Prognosfruit 2026, the annual meeting of the European pome fruit sector, and shared by Afrucat.
Apples: widespread decline, with Spain the exception
The forecast of 9.50 million tonnes for the 2026/2027 apple season confirms a downward trend affecting most of the EU’s major producing countries. Poland, the bloc’s largest producer, is expected to see production fall by 29% compared with 2025, followed by Hungary (-20%) and France (-24%). Germany (-10%) and Romania (-2.7%) are also forecast to decline, while Italy is expected to remain broadly stable (-2%). Spain is the only major producing country projected to record growth, with output rising by 7.5%.
Among the EU’s leading apple varieties, Golden Delicious (-11%), Gala (-8%) and Red Delicious (-5%) are all expected to post lower production. Fuji is forecast to remain virtually unchanged (+0.5%), while Cripps Pink is expected to decline by 7% compared with 2025.
Among the EU’s leading apple varieties, Golden Delicious (-11%), Gala (-8%) and Red Delicious (-5%) are all expected to post lower production. Fuji is forecast to remain virtually unchanged (+0.5%), while Cripps Pink is expected to decline by 7% compared with 2025.
Pears: best harvest since 2022, but still well below Europe’s full potential
EU pear production is forecast to increase by 5.46% year-on-year to 1.95 million tonnes, the highest level since 2022. However, this recovery comes against the backdrop of a continued decline in cultivated area, which has fallen by 18.9% since 2015, from 116,320 hectares to 94,320 hectares across the EU.
Among producing countries, Germany is expected to post the strongest percentage increase (+51.6%, albeit from a relatively small production base), followed by the Netherlands and Poland (both +18.2%), and Italy (+17.4%). Belgium, the EU’s largest producer by volume, is forecast to see production decline by 7.2%, while the Czech Republic is expected to record the steepest fall (-45.0%). Spain is projected to remain broadly stable, with a modest increase of 0.7%.
Conference, the EU’s dominant pear variety accounting for nearly half of total production, is expected to grow by 2.1%. Abate Fetel stands out with the strongest increase of the season (+34.3%), while Williams BC remains almost unchanged (+1.1%) and Rocha is forecast to rise by 8.9%. Guyot (-23.6%) and Durondeau (-34.1%) are expected to record the sharpest declines.
Extreme heat: A major threat to european fruit harvests
According to the data presented at Prognosfruit 2026, part of the variation between producing countries can be attributed to adverse weather events—including spring frosts and hailstorms—that affected specific production areas across Europe during the growing season, with differing impacts depending on the country and region.
The organisers also warned that the exceptionally high temperatures recorded across Europe are expected to have the greatest impact during the final stage of fruit development, resulting in smaller fruit sizes. This factor could lead to a downward revision of current production forecasts as the season progresses.
