The preliminary forecast for “Fino” lemons prepared by AILIMPO for the upcoming 2025/2026 season predicts production in Spain of 780,000 tonnes, representing a 10% decrease compared to the final production figures for this same variety in the 2024/2025 season.
The data will be updated in September depending on the development of the fruit size. The better average quality of the fruit thanks to optimal management of thrips control augurs well for greater utilization in the fresh market.
The reduction in harvest will be more noticeable in the second half of the Fino lemon season, starting in the middle of the first quarter of 2026. This initial harvest estimate will be confirmed in September and is subject to weather conditions, water availability and fruit size development in the coming weeks. According to the latest official data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and the Environment (MAPA), the area under Fino lemon cultivation in Spain currently stands at 31,635 hectares.
Climate change and the impact of pests such as Prays citri prevent lemon trees from reaching their maximum theoretical production potential, with the Fino lemon harvest falling far short of the 1,190,000 tonnes produced two seasons ago (2023/2024) and far below the historical average for the five-year period (910,000 tonnes). This situation poses a challenge for producers as there is a decline in average yields per hectare and, therefore, an increase in the production cost per kilo of lemon. Adapting lemon cultivation practices to the new climate change scenario and implementing new pest and disease management strategies are two key pillars of AILIMPO’s Strategic Plan to develop tools and implement solutions to these challenges that will guarantee profitability for farmers, all through interbranch tools such as the AGEFIS project.
IMPACT OF CLIMATOLOGY
• The rainfall this spring (particularly during March) and the higher number of rainy days caused flower rot, with the humidity preventing adequate pollination and fruit set.
• Temperatures from January to June 2025 were above average, especially in June, when they were 2.7ºC higher. This increase in temperatures has consequences for the setting phase, which can cause small fruits to fall.
• In those lemon-producing areas where the frosts of January 2025 caused damage to trees, a lower lemon harvest is also observed. This coincides with the main production areas of Traditional Fino lemons.
IMPACT OF PESTS
• New species of Scirtothrips caused significant damage in the previous 2024/2025 season, reducing fruit quality and affecting the quantity of marketable fruit obtained. However, proper crop management and correct phytosanitary strategies by farmers mean that damage will be limited for the next 2025/2026 season and the percentage of marketable fruit will therefore be higher.
• On the other hand, populations of the lemon moth (Prays citri) have been significant this spring on farms where adequate control measures have not been taken. In these specific cases, a reduction in harvest has been observed.
HISTORICAL PRODUCTION DATA FOR FINO LEMONS (tonnes)
